Copa América 2028

Status

Host, dates and format not yet announced. The 2024 edition had 16 teams in four groups; the file is ready for whatever 2028 turns out to be.

What will be here

The same seven chapters as the World Cup page, from the ratings the teams carry into the tournament: who wins it, every group, the most likely bracket, the hosts, the underdogs, the paradoxes and a page per team, with the maths on its own page. The simulations run the day after the finals draw and are scored against the real tournament afterwards.

Model change

The Euro 2028 and Copa América 2028 runs add the Dixon–Coles correction for low-scoring draws, the one weakness the World Cup calibration showed.