How it works

Two fitted parameters and four formulas.

100,000 replays of international tournaments from Elo ratings. A personal project by Thiago Caetano, not affiliated with FIFA, UEFA, CONMEBOL or eloratings.net.

Data

Ratings and match histories from eloratings.net. Tournament regulations from FIFA, as documented on Wikipedia. Flags from flagcdn.

Links

Source code on GitHub
How it works
Thiago Caetano